Indeed. The point about domestic politics in Iran is particularly important. Ultimatums produce humiliation for the state that capitulates. And if they’re ignored, humiliation for the state that doesn’t follow through. So when neither side is willing to accept humiliation, you can see where the outcome is headed. What’s needed is an off ramp.
Exactly right. The humiliation trap is what makes the coercive ladder so hard to descend once you’ve climbed it. The off ramp problem is real, but it requires a third party with enough standing to provide cover for both sides to move without it looking like capitulation. Oman has played that role before. Whether it can again, given how far this has escalated, is the open question.
Indeed. The point about domestic politics in Iran is particularly important. Ultimatums produce humiliation for the state that capitulates. And if they’re ignored, humiliation for the state that doesn’t follow through. So when neither side is willing to accept humiliation, you can see where the outcome is headed. What’s needed is an off ramp.
Exactly right. The humiliation trap is what makes the coercive ladder so hard to descend once you’ve climbed it. The off ramp problem is real, but it requires a third party with enough standing to provide cover for both sides to move without it looking like capitulation. Oman has played that role before. Whether it can again, given how far this has escalated, is the open question.